The short-term prospects for EU agricultural markets in 2026 remain robust, despite the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East which are adding to pre-existing challenges and risks, including weather-related ones, animal diseases and persistent trade tensions. These sources of uncertainty are rising input costs putting pressure on producer margins. Still, EU production is expected to increase for oilseeds, dairy, pigmeat and poultry. Cereal production is forecast to contract but remain close to the five-year average, while production in the ruminants, sugar and olive oil sectors is expected to decline.
This summer 2026 edition of the short-term outlook report and its interactive online dashboard offer valuable insights on the current state of EU agricultural markets and forward-looking expectations, serving as a key decision-support tool for all stakeholders of the EU agri-food chain. To note, this report does not take into account the ongoing heatwaves which are severely affecting famers all across Europe.
Market fundamentals
Macroeconomic and energy market prospects for 2026 remain highly uncertain, with real GDP growth forecast at just +1.1%, inflation to rise to +3.1% driven by energy costs, and food prices expected to climb following the increasing input costs. In line with the European Commission’s Spring Economic Forecast, this short-term outlook assumes a progressive normalisation of energy markets, supported by a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of key maritime routes. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. In this context, producer margins remain under pressure, with fertiliser affordability dropping to levels observed in 2022. To address these concerns, the Commission’s Fertiliser Action Plan adopted in May 2026 aims to ease short-term cost pressures while bolstering long-term resilience, in addition to the dedicated temporary State Aid Framework.
The weather outlook forecasts generally favourable crop conditions for 2026 in the EU, with winter crop yields expected above the historical average, while spring and summer crops may suffer from heat and water shortages, particularly in drought-prone regions. Globally, a strong El Niño event is expected to peak in autumn, with mixed agricultural impacts. Though the EU’s production may avoid major direct effects, global market disruptions could propagate through supply chains. Uncertainties—including interactions with climate change—keep El Niño risks elevated.
Arable and specialised crops
EU cereal production in 2026/27 is forecast to return to average at 273.7 million t, after exceptionally high yields in the past season for wheat and barley. High beginning stocks are expected to still allow for strong wheat exports while imports are forecast to only increase marginally. EU oilseeds production is forecast to rise 3.1%, driven by expanded sunflower seed area and yields. Production of oilseed meals is expected to reach a record level and production of vegetable oils is also forecast to increase, while consumption stays stable. Production of protein crops is forecast to slightly decline but to remain above average, while EU sugar production may decline due to lower sugar beet area.
Olive oil production is expected to decline from previous production recovery in 2024/25 but to remain above average in 2025/26. EU consumption is forecast to return to average, while both exports and imports are expected to increase, in a context of lower prices.
Animal products
EU milk supply is forecast to grow in 2026, driven by higher yields. Prices have stabilised after late-2025 declines, but rising input costs put pressure on farm margins. Demand remains resilient, though food inflation and the passthrough of input costs to consumer prices pose risks. Increased raw milk availability may boost butter, cheese, whey, and skimmed milk powder production, while exports stay resilient despite weaker Middle East demand and trade disruptions.
EU beef production is forecast to decline in 2026 and 2027 due to a declining cow herd, keeping prices high despite early-year easing. Sheep and goat meat face similar pressures from a declining herd and disease challenges. Pigmeat production and consumption is expected to stay stable, with resilient exports as prices fall. Poultry production is set to grow, driven by strong demand and high prices, though exports may decline while imports rise.
EU balance sheets are available in Agri-food data portal, both in the form of tables and graphs. In addition, selected data for Member States are available and visualised in dataM.
Report: EU agricultural markets short-term outlook – summer 2026
The short-term outlook is based on the latest market fundamentals, data, and insights from experts within the European Commission’s Department for Agriculture and Rural Development.
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